Mali – Sahel: May 2018 Violent incidents by Al-Qaeda affiliate Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimeen (JNIM), Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS), Islamic State in West Africa Province (ISWAP), Ansaroul Islam, and other security incidents

By Rida Lyammouri,

June 14, 2018

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FULL PDF REPORT – MAY 2018 INCIDENT TRACKER

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Mali – Sahel: August 2017 – April 2018 Chronology of Violent Incidents by Al-Qaeda Affiliate Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimeen (JNIM), Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS), Islamic State in West Africa Province (ISWAP), Ansaroul Islam, and Armed Banditry and Inter-Community Violence

 

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CLICK HERE FOR FULL PDF REPORT

 

 

Mali – Sahel: July 2017 violent incidents related to JNIM [AQIM, Ansar al-Din, Al-Murabitoun, and MLF coalition], and other security incidents

By Rida Lyammouri,

September 7th, 2017

MALI – SAHEL: JULY 2017 Monthly Tracker – PDF 

July 2017 by the numbers:

  • JNIM claimed 7 attacks against French, MINUSMA, and Malian forces in July 2017.
  • Casualties summary in July 2017: At least 1 MINUSMA peacekeepers (or contractor) killed and 6 injured; 7 French soldiers injured; 11 Malian soldiers killed and 4 injured; 6 members of armed groups killed; 2 civilians killed and 2 injured in attacks claimed or attributed to JNIM or other VEOs operating in Mali.
  • July 2017 recorded multiple clashes between CMA and Platform forces, mostly in Kidal Region further complicating implementation of peace accord signed over two years ago.
  • Armed robberies against civilians transportation and NGO vehicles in central and northern regions continues to be major security concern.
  • French forces made several arrests of suspects collaborating with jihadist groups in Timbuktu Region.
  • In July 2017 JNIM claimed its first major attacks on Burkinabe and Nigerien forces in Burkina Faso and Niger respectively. Since its creation in March 2017, JNIM almost exclusively operated and only claimed attacks in Mali. During these attacks at least 5 Nigerien and 8 Burkinabe soldiers killed while 3 Nigerien injured.
  • After Adnan Abu Walid al-Sahraoui released a letter threatening MSA and GATIA groups in June, number of attacks recorded in Ménaka Region where the group that pledged allegiance to so-called Islamic State operates.
  • Kisal NGO reported acts of violence by GATIA against Fulani herders following increased attacks by unidentified gunmen. GATIA accuses Fulani herders of collaboration with jihadist groups in Ménaka Region.
  • In Burkina Faso at least 10 people killed in Sahel Region as a result of target assassinations by suspected jihadists.

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Mali – Sahel: June 2017 Violent Incidents Related to Al-Qaeda Affiliate JNIM, Ansaroul Islam, and Other Security Incidents

By Rida Lyammouri

August 2nd, 2017

FULL PDF REPORT COULD BE FOUND HERE

  • JNIM claimed 8 attacks against French, MINUSMA, and Malian forces in June 2017.
  • In June 4 MINUSMA peacekeepers killed and 9 injured, 4 French soldiers injured, 7 Malian soldiers killed and 12 wounded, 2 civilians executed and 2 injured.
  • Sahel MeMo noted number of inter-community violence. Deadly clashes were recorded between Fulani herders and Dogon farmers over land management. Clashes started as early as 25 May and went on and off through June, and took place on the borders between Mali and Burkina Faso, and included members from both countries. Casualties were estimated by Kisal NGO to be around 100.
  • Sahel MeMo recorded armed robberies against civilians and NGOs in central and northern regions.
  • French forces conducted from May 28 to June 1st joint operation at Serma forest, 200km SW of Gao with Malian and Burkinabe forces. Barkhane said successfully dismantled networks and camps used by JNIM affiliates in the area, neutralized around 20 militants, and seized arms and ammunition.
  • Sahelien.com reported that since early June 2017 assassinations and acts of exaction of civilians have been recorded in Kidal Region between Imghad Tuareg and Idnan Tuareg.
  • Adnan Abu Walid al-Sahraoui released a letter threatening MSA and GATIA groups.
  • In a short Facebook post, Ansaroul Islam announced change in leadership of the group. New leader identified as Jaafar Dicko supposedly to replace Maalam Ibrahim Dicko. Until now there is no confirmation if Ibrahim Dicko is dead.
  • Swedish hostage, Johan Gustafsson released on 27 June after being held by AQIM since November 25, 2011.

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Boko Haram had a busy Ramadan in 2017, which reflected one of the group’s more successful recent thirty-day spans in terms of violence.

July 11, 2017

Boko Haram had a busy Ramadan in 2017, which reflected one of the group’s more successful recent thirty-day spans in terms of violence.

In total, at least thirty-nine different attacks attributed to the group occurred, the highest monthly total this year (although April and January were close). Ramadan started off slow, with just six attacks in the first ten days, before the group engaged in near-daily violence the rest of the time.

Of the thirty-nine attacks, 25 involved suicide bombers – nearly two out of every three incidents. In fact, the number of suicide incidents is the most ever recorded in a one-month span, an indication of the group’s mystifying ability not just to maintain, but even increase, capabilities in this regard.

These attacks included at least 38 total bombers, as 14 incidents involved multiple bombers, with as many as four at once. While many Boko Haram suicide attacks have largely been ineffective recently – confined to the outskirts of urban areas and few casualties, especially of civilians – Ramadan reversed this trend. At least 55 civilians were killed, or more than two per attack (compared to 9 total civilians killed on 13 attacks in May). While casualty counts are difficult to track and impossible to guarantee complete accuracy, it is clear that the lethality to civilians of this type of violence increased (though centering around a few specific incidents, in which the group was able to exploit some security vulnerabilities).

In terms of location, 18 of the total Ramadan incidents occurred in northern Cameroon (predominately in the Mayo Sava department) while 20 were in Borno state, and one in Chad. Half of those in Borno occurred in or on the outskirts of Maiduguri, symbolizing the group’s continued fascination with the movement’s birthplace. Many of these occurred in two primary areas of the city – its eastern and southeastern flanks, a likely indication of the Shekau faction’s responsibility given his group’s purported hideouts in areas to the south and southeast of the Borno state capital (such as Sambisa Forest).

In terms of the factional nature of the violence, it appears the vast majority of recorded incidents over Ramadan likely derive from the Shekau faction. The use of suicide bombers, the targeting of civilians, and the geographic concentration of violence along the Nigeria-Cameroon border and in south-central Borno all point to Shekau’s responsibility.

Nonetheless, the Barnawi faction is reportedly also present in areas of south-central Borno state, and little information emerges from its presumed northern Borno state strongholds around Guzamala and Abadam local government areas (LGAs), so it is difficult to say how operational the group has been recently. The major 24 June 2017 battle with Chadian security forces along some islands in Lake Chad is the clearest indication of a likely Barnawi faction violence (and was later claimed in the Islamic State weekly publication Al Naba), but the majority of the incidents in the dataset more closely correspond to Shekau’s operational methods.

The Shekau faction also followed up its two biggest Ramadan attacks – an invasion of the Jiddari Polo neighborhood in Maiduguri, and an assault on a convoy of vehicles traveling from Maiduguri along Damboa road in which several female police officers were reportedly abducted, with video messaging claiming the incidents, serving to capitalize on the propaganda value of their success. In fact, both incidents represent somewhat of a recent increase of capabilities for a group constantly claimed to be on the decline. The convoy consisted of 200 vehicles and was protected by both the Nigerian army and police, while the Jiddari Polo incident represented Boko Haram’s first “invasion” of Maiduguri in nearly two years (in addition one of its deepest recent penetrations of the city).

These two incidents, combined with the increase in suicide attack lethality and continued indications after Ramadan of sustained capabilities (such as the first suicide attack in Niger in 1.5 years and repeated suicide violence in northern Cameroon), are patent signs that the movement is far from being defeated. In fact, the increased levels of violence targeting Maiduguri since late last year is another indication that events like the “fall” of Sambisa Forest may result in pushing the militants around more than eliminating them, with some of this now coming closer to the Borno state capital. There is an ebb and flow nature to this violence, but it seems the movement has been able to regroup after military pressure in some fashion.

It also begs the question as to how the movement was able to enjoy such success during this month? Boko Haram is still a far cry from what it was a few years ago when it controlled much of Borno state and beyond, but Ramadan 2017 indicates that it is far from a spent force, and rather one capable of constant adaption. The shifts the group made have helped increase the effectiveness of its suicide attacks, while demonstrating a consistent supply of both bombers and explosive materials. Security actors must consider these dynamics and respond with constantly innovate tactics as well – the recent announcement that the University of Maiduguri, a frequent target in past months, will start digging trenches around unfenced parts of the campus is a good start. But as Ramadan 2017 indicated, more measures are needed, and despite some previously positive trends, it will be unwise to relax when it comes to security in the Lake Chad region any time soon.

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Mali: Summary of Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) 01 July 2017 Video

By Rida Lyammouri,

02 July 2017

Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) released new video of six remaining hostages. Hostages detained include a French, Australian, South African, Colombian, Swiss, and Romanian. Video was released on 01 July 2017 through its media outlet az-Zallaqa but produced by al-Ezza production, first if I am not mistaken, and maybe JNIM’s new media outlet/platform! This came a day before French president, Emmanuel Macron, second visit to Mali within a month. Also, days before the release of Swedish hostage Johan Gustafsson who was kidnapped (with 5 others) by al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) in November 25, 2011 at Hotel al-Afia in Timbuktu.

Six hostages appeared in the video. South African Stephen McGow showed first in the is the only hostage remaining from Timbuktu 2011 kidnapping. Second, Australian Eliot Kenneth, kidnapped in Burkina Faso January 2016. His wife was also taken but then released weeks later. Romanian Lulian Ghergut, taken also in Burkina Faso April 2015. Worth noting that Adnan Abu Walid al-Sahraoui, head of Islamic State branch in the Sahara claimed to have Lulian Ghergut when the group pledged allegiance to Islamic State, and split with al-Murabitun of Mokhtar Belmokhtar.

Before showing other hostages the video denounced Christian missionaries operating in Mali. This to justify the reasons of the kidnappings of three humanitarian workers. The first hostage accused of proselytization is the Swiss Béatrice Stockly, who was taken for the second time from Timbuktu in January 2016. Second hostage is the Colombian Gloria Cecilia Narvaez, also accused of proselytizing and described as “Franciscaine.” Sixth and last showed hostage is Sophie Pétronin, humanitarian and last to be taken, kidnapped in Gao December 2016. Sophie Pétronin was accused also of spreading western ideology while showing Emannuel Macron speech promising during the elections to protect the French people. Pétronin also appeared asking for French president’s help for her release, and her need for a surgery due to existing tumor in her left breast. This indicates that the video was made during the last two months, May and June 2017.

Representative of the jihadist group with face covered appeared and noted that serious negotiations has yet to take place. He also made reference to previous hostage releases and to say that this will depend on the political willingness of their respective governments.

Important to note JNIM’s video did not mention Jeff Woodke, an American who was abducted in Abalak, Niger in Oct 2016. An indication that he might be held by different group, and also tells us something about JNIM’s areas of operations.

Mali – Sahel: May 2017 Violent Incidents Related to JNIM [AQIM, Ansar al-Din], and Other Security Incidents

June 15th, 2017

By Rida Lyammouri

  • Sahel MeMo recorded at least 14 violent incidents with violent extremist organizations (VEOs) involvement. However only 7 officially claimed by Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimeen (JNIM) through its media arm az-Zallaqa.
  • Sahel MeMo recorded at least 23 casualties and 43 injuries among Malian Army, MINUSMA, and MNLA as a result of the 14 violent incidents by VEOs. Out of the 14 incidents, both MINUSMA and Malian forces were victims of 4 attacks each [1 both simultaneously].
  • Among casualties recorded in May 2017, 3 MINUSMA peacekeepers killed and 14 injured. 19 Malian soldiers killed and 28 injured. 1 MNLA member assassinated.
  • Sahel MeMo recorded at least 24 armed robberies incidents in May 2017. Non-government organizations (NGOs) were targeted by armed bandits at least 5 times, including ICRC and MSF. Armed robberies recorded all took place in northern and central Mali and most of the victims were civilians.
  • Sahel MeMo recorded clashes between armed groups and militias signatories of the peace accord.
  • 3 violent incidents recorded by Sahel MeMo in Niger in Tillabéri Region while 4 others took place in Burkina Faso. No group claimed responsibility of these attacks. Members of Ansaroul Islam in Burkina Faso and Adnan Abu Walid al-Sahraoui men are the main suspects.
  • The month of May 2017 also witnessed at least two tragedies regarding migrants traveling to Libya through Niger. At least 52 migrants were found dead in the Nigerien desert.

FULL PDF REPORT – MAY 2017 INCIDENT TRACKER

 

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